Friday, September 18, 2020

Why I am (still) Concerned About COVID

As you know, we’ve crossed the 200K threshold.  That’s right – at least 200,000 people have died from COVID-19.  That’s a helluva landmark, and we’ll discuss that in a moment, but first, I wanted to explain why I am concerned about the virus.

Truth is, I’ve always been concerned.  When we first started to hear stories from Wuhan last January about how everyone was locked up inside and there were deaths-a-plenty, I was concerned (OK, spooked – there were some really eerie images floating around then).  China seems far away, but here in Oregon a flight to Wuhan is shorter than, say, Athens, Greece. 

Later, when the first cases arrived on the US mainland, they were in Washington (state), which of course borders us.  So naturally I was concerned.  Then more and more reports of the virus, and soon it was March and the US was reporting a thousand cases a day, then two thousand, then four thousand, then lots more.  When we had 20,000 cases in one day and states starting taking action to limit the spread of the virus (masks, stay-at-home, closing schools, etc.), I really became concerned.

It seems so quaint now.  There we were, hunkered down, seeing somewhere between 20-40,000 cases a day, and one-to-two-thousand deaths daily, and many or us were worried.  But soon the cases declined and the President set up a commission and pretty soon everyone clamored to reopen and get the economy moving again.

And the virus, which never really left and barely abated, ramped up feverously (that’s the only pun I will use here).

Now, nearly seven million cases later, we ‘re at that “200,000 dead” mark. 

My concern has always been not catching COVID, because if I do, I have a 90% chance of living through it.  To you, that may not sound bad, but as a poker player I can attest to the number of times I’ve been a 9-to-1 favorite headed into the river card, knowing my opponent needs that lucky break to bust me, and…bang.  He hits it.  In regular poker, all that means is I lose the hand and the money invested in that hand.  In tournament poker, if I’m “all in” and I lose, I lose it all, and I’m out of the game.

Life is like tournament poker, except here there are no “rebuys.”  When you’re out, you’re out.

I don’t want to be out.  Not yet.

And hey, we haven’t even begun to discuss what happens when you catch COVID and survive yet suffer lasting damage to lungs, immune system, etc.  I don’t want any of that shit, either.

So I remain concerned.  And amazed, because it’s been nearly a year and there still is absolutely NO NATIONAL PLAN dealing with this virus.  No mandatory mask rule, no…nothing.  In fact, just the opposite.  There’s outright distain from doing anything about it; it’s all about reopening schools, football, and the economy.  Sure, they bailed out a bunch of corporations and gave suffering individuals a paltry $1200 each and some unemployment benefit boosts (temporary fixes, of course, and full disclosure: We never received our $1200 CARES checks and yes I wrote my congressperson about it), but the focus has never been about slowing or stopping the virus.

It’s as if they were completely unprepared for this and have no idea how to combat it.  And that’s because they were and are.

Back near the end of March, when deaths numbered just over 4,000 TOTAL, our fearless leader said, “It’s a horrible number [but] if we have between 100,000 and 200,000 (deaths), we all together have done a very good job.”

Now we have more than 200,000 dead. 

Hint:  You have not done a very good job.

I am still concerned.


BTW, to show I’m not blowing smoke about that 90%-to-the-good” idea, here’s a recent poker hand in a tournament I was playing (one of those short-handed games).  We’re down to me and one other player.  I catch the magic hand – pocket aces – and I raise.  My opponent calls.  I was 87% assured of winning the hand.
The flop is garbage – a possible low straight, sure, but when my opponent checks, I make a pot-size bet.  He raises!  Obviously, he’s either (a) got it, or (b) making some sort of bluff.  I just call.  At this point I am a 97% favorite.

The turn card is a king, giving him a pair, but…he checks.  I make another pot-size bet and he goes ALL IN.  I call, because I believe I am still the favorite (and I am, statistically – now just 88% ).  He needs one of the last two kings in the deck to win, or one of the three 8s.  You know what happened.  

King.

I am dead.

No comments:

Post a Comment