CONFIDENCE LEVEL REVIEW

Tomorrow is Election Day.  Technically, the end of the election.  I don’t try to predict or project winners or losers, because as we saw four years ago, anything can happen, don’t count your chickens, etc.  But there are many things I am confident of, and in 24-72 hours, we’ll see how much of everything ends up.  See if you agree…

• I am 90% confident Joe Biden and Kamala Harris will win the Electoral College vote and be elected President and VP.
• I am 95% confident Donald Trump will try at least two “somethings” between now and the end of the week to remain as President.  This could be court challenges, declaring victory prematurely, outright cheating at the polls, etc.  I don’t know what, and I don’t know if he’ll be successful, but he’ll sure as hell try.
• I am 97% confident Donald Trump will not have a traditional victory party at the White House.  Building an unscalable wall around the place and inviting 250 of your closest National Guard friends isn’t the usual venue.
• I am 98% confident there will not be a simple and smooth transition of power from Trump to Biden.  There’s almost three months between today and the inauguration; plenty of time to gum up the works as far as certifying the election and/or transitioning the administrations.  I shudder to think of all the possibilities, and if I want to sleep at night, I don’t.
• I am 99.56% sure the Republicans in Congress will “say words” about how there are winner and losers and of course we’ll have a smooth transition of power but won’t lift a finger to do anything about it, and, in fact, will work behind the scenes to help Trump fuck it up.  We’ve heard for several leaders including Mitch McConnell (who I am sadly 62% confident will be back in 2021) that they’ll cooperate, but at this point anything McConnell says is worth about a warm bucket of spit.
• I am 80% confident Biden will have a completely Democratic Congress, making Mitch the MINORITY LEADER (if that).  Yes, that number is high, frankly, but I’ll feel so much better about it if it happens.
• I am 99.993% confident that Republicans will begin to bitch about the debt, about the deficit, and about Biden’s response to the COVID crisis beginning about…1/24/21.
• I am 100% confident that everyone did what they could to cause a BLUE TSUNAMI, and if they did, I am 100% confident things will get better.

We’ll see what happens after tomorrow.  If you have yet to VOTE BLUE, DO SO TOMORROW.  And stay safe – it’s going to be a regular shitshow out there.