The infamous ipoker-troll James Thackston has finally
released his new “4-way
collusion software” and a “fuzzy
video” (the images are blurry on purpose, but the logic is equally fuzzy). It has yet to be trumpeted by Sheldon Adelson’s
Coalition to Stop Internet Gambling - but give it time (Cheri Jacobus has
already done what she does best - retweeted JT’s original thoughts). With the software and the video, Thackston
purports to show that players can collude and see each other’s hole cards, and
that this activity can go undetected by the online casino (more on this later),
thus gaining an advantage, and thus allowing cheating and money laundering and
other nefarious crimes, therefore, all online activity is suspect and sucks and
can’t be trusted, nyah-nyah-nyah.
I mentioned that I felt his logic fuzzy - like the profit
motive of South Park’s “underpants gnomes.”
I will only briefly talk about the “detect-ability
issue” - the remainder of this post will discuss Step 2, using the “James Thackston’s 4-way Collusion Underpants Gnomes software” model:
1. See other
colluders’ hole cards.
2.
3. Profit!
Can the software be detected? JT says no.
He says the casino would have to act as their own anti-virus company,
and this would “break the ipoker business model” (but he doesn’t say how -
expense, I assume). He adds later that “some
colluders may get caught but the vast majority will succeed.” He doesn’t say how they would get caught
using his undetectable software. Later,
he says that “greed is a deadly sin.” He
mentions that abuse of the system will likely result in the cheating team’s
capture. My analysis: Since money is the object, and it is assumed
that cheaters cheat because they want money, and this can be considered greed
(versus wining money the old fashioned way with quality play), anyone who
cheats is greedy and might get caught using this “completely undetectable” (his
words, not mine) software.
What?
Enough of that. Oh,
wait, one more thing. If Thackston hasn’t
provided enough caveats for you here, go to his software website and “try” to
download the software. I say “try”
because (a) you really don’t want to, and (b) you don’t need to, to see my next
point. Normally, when you attempt to
download software, you get a screen with the usual boilerplate warnings and the
infamous “I accept” button you have to press before the software will download
(you give up your rights to litigate, and your first born, or something). Thackston makes you go through SEVERAL of
these…I did all five, and then my computer had a bit of throw-up in its mouth (no, I didn't download the stuff). Here’s a screen shot:
Oh - I did a “view source” screen shot to look at his HTML,
and noticed this blurb: “Some browsers may show warnings about the safety of this
software.” Fun stuff.
Now, to what I really wanted to talk
about. Step 2. The missing step. You can see some other hole cards (of your
fellow colluders). Nice. This does give you a statistical advantage. I concede that. But…there are six other players at the table,
and you CAN’T see their cards, nor determine how they will act. If you have pocket Aces, you also have a
statistical advantage, and tell me the last time you saw someone shove against
your Aces holding 5-9 offsuit and watched as they hit two pair on the flop and
bust you (for me, it was Wednesday, which is why I picked that particular
example, thank you).
You can collude, but you may not succeed. Collusion doesn’t guarantee anything. Anytime one steps outside the lines, there is
additional risk involved. The idea that
a team of poker players could set up such a system and go after “profit” using
such a system is believable, as I’ve worked in money businesses all my
life. ANY business where “money” is
involved invites criminal activity.
Banking, sure. Radio (money
laundering is easy if you control access to some accounts). Retail (those $20s are just sitting there in
the cash register). Cops on the take
(making $30K but driving expensive cars, etc.).
You get the idea.
But many criminals get
caught. They get greedy. They get sloppy. And, because they are “outside the line”
people notice. There is risk
involved. Duh. Collusion for money laundering? Too much time, too much effort, too much
risk. Is Al Qaeda sending new recruits
to Poker School (they only learn 3-betting, being TAG, and all-in, and never
learn folding)? Gimme a break.
If the software is all it’s cracked
up to be, do it. Show us. Don’t post a blurry video of some play money
game and tell us, “…knowing 4 out of 10 sets of hole cards gives the colluding
team enough information to manipulate the game in very subtle (my emphasis)
ways.” Go get the info and manipulate.
Post THAT. Show us, not that it
COULD be done, but that it HAS been done.
Then we can have a rational discussion.
Otherwise, quit stealing our
underpants.
