Sunday, April 18, 2021

Dying to Own the Libs?

Two pokes and done!
The good news is that as of today, both Mona and I have received our second Moderna shots.  We’re part of the 25% of Oregonians who are “fully vaccinated” against COVID, even though “fully” means 90%, not 100%.  I guess it’s because “close enough” doesn’t sound promising enough.

That’s not why some folks aren’t getting the vaccine, of course.

You’ve no doubt read that nearly half of those who voted for Trump do not expect to get the vaccine.  Now, to be fair, some of them say, “not yet” and they actually give “compelling reasons” for why they plan to wait.  They want to see just how good it works in actual application vs. clinical trials, they want to see if it’s effective against the variant strains, they want to see if any serious side effects emerge.  The problem with their skepticism is that they won’t do the groundwork themselves to find out the answers to these questions, and, given their news sources of choice (Fox, Rush, Glenn Beck, Alex Jones, et al), they won’t get answers there, either.

Not good ones.  Not true ones.

Just imagine how many mental gymnastics a conservative must do nowadays to navigate the COVID/vaccine maze.  After all, this is a disease introduced by the Chinese that’s a hoax and is no worse than the flu which hardly affected anyone this winter and even though a half-million Americans are dead and there are more than 140 million cases worldwide (and the US accounts for almost a quarter of ‘em) the numbers are fake thanks to the CDC and WHO and the Deep State.  But it’s real because Dear Leader got the virus and beat it and then developed a vaccine in record time all by himself and deserves the Nobel Prize for it and even though all the former Presidents got vaccinated in public to promote it and he did in secretly and didn’t tell anyone but he deserves all the credit and Biden doesn’t even though vaccination rates are four, five, even ten times higher now than they were when he was in charge and it’s the states’ fault anyway even though it’s tough to get an appointment and places are throwing away the vaccine because no one is signing up and I never get the Flu Virus Vaccine except for those three times before when there was a Republican President and that’s why I ain’t gettin’ no COVID vaccine because even if I do get it, it won’t be so bad like a cold and poor old Aunt Betsy was old and had a bad ticker and was gonna die, anyway. 

I’m sure I missed something.

Last seven weeks here in Oregon.  Not good.

What I am not missing is the fact that even though more and more people are becoming fully vaccinated like me, the case count is going up, up, UP!  Fortunately, deaths are not rising as dramatically (yet) although we still don’t know all the long-term effects of the disease even though preliminary indications are that it’s not good for you, period.  As if any illness is.

And why are positive case counts going up, up to levels not seen since the Christmas/New Year’s bump?

Because folks are stupid.

Like many other states who are experiencing large bumps in cases (looking at YOU, Michigan), Oregon is “opening up” prematurely.  Yes, that’s my opinion.  Others think differently – High Schools are playing football and other sports, many classes are back in session, you can eat inside at the restaurants and bars (though there’s some “limited capacity”) and even the soccer teams are putting (some) fans back in the seats.  We also had the annual “spring break” on the coast and big crowds in the churches for Easter and every time we go to the market (still only once a week or less because why take the risk?) we see mask-less folks and many chin-straps.  And folks are just SO DAMN EXCITED ABOUT IT – CAN’T WAIT TO GO EAT AND HUG SOMEONE.

Like I said, stupid.

To me, it’s like someone serving a 15-year prison sentence who breaks out of jail three weeks before the end of his sentence.  We’ve been putting up with masks, social distancing, washing our hands, limiting trips, ALL THAT SHIT FOR SO FUCKING LONG – surely we could hold off just a little longer to get (almost) everyone (who wants it) vaccinated to eradicate ourselves from this horrible disease?

Nah.

Because stupid.

Every day we see evidence of America’s growing stupidity.  Not just about COVID.  Not just political thought.  Not just bad spelling and poor grammar.  But bad decisions with horrible consequences from folks who you wonder sometimes how they got dressed that morning they seem so stupid.  But not only does no one seem bothered by our increasing stupidity, but many folks also revel in it.  They celebrate not only the stupidity of others but of themselves.

Yes, I know…Dunning-Kruger effect in action.

The stupidest idea though is the one that’s been circulating for a while underground and is now “mainstream” because it’s been in the New York Times – the concept that conservatives are denying themselves the vaccine because “it would make Biden look good,” ergo, “I’ll take my chances / get sick / die just to own the libs.”

Now that’s stupid.

The longer we fail to meet “herd immunity,” the longer it will take to reach “herd immunity.”  They want all the restrictions lifted, and a quick return to normal.  But they won’t do the things we need to do for that to happen.

No wonder we called ‘em fuckers.  But no longer.   Now, they’re stupid fuckers. 

And if they catch the virus, I will not cry. 



Friday, April 16, 2021

BETA Means “Not Everything Is Working Correctly, Maybe”

I do not claim to be a computer expert, but I do know something about how they work.  I know what an algorithm is.  I know how they’re supposed to work, and I know that when there’s a pattern that is evident all the time EXCEPT in one specific case, that specific case must have some “difference” that causes it to be an exception.

Some background:

As you may know, I have a variety of small paperbacks and eBooks for sale on Amazon.  I don’t sell books that often, so when I do there’s cause for celebration (about 130-150 per year, to be honest).  That’s over five different titles, but just two paperbacks make up almost 80% of sales – The ABCs of Craps (over 50%) and The ABCs of 21 (almost 27%).

Amazon has a variety of features in their sales reporting system that shows you how you’re doing; all sorts of sales reports, royalties estimators, and the like.  They’ve made several changes over the years, and now have a new BETA program that shows “Sales Ranking” for the various books in a variety of categories (overall, and the ones you assign to your books).

This is where Amazon’s “algorithm” comes in.  Obviously, the more books you sell, the higher your ranking.  Boy, that’s tough to figure out.  The Sales Ranking is updated hourly, which means it’s more “real-time” than the Sales Report, which always takes a day or two to “settle” before posting.  I’m cool with that, recognizing that charges have to go through, be posted, all of that.

I’ve noticed that when I check Sales Ranking and suddenly, my ranking goes UP, this must mean I’ve sold a book, and sure enough, a day or two later a sale is recorded in the Sales Report.

Except for one book, The ABCs of 21.  For some reason, there’s no sync between sales and rank change. 

Here’s a table showing sales and rank “bumps” for my Craps book (from the graphs I see in my reports).  Note that the last bump has yet to show up in sales (but I know it will, today or tomorrow):

Rank jump on

Sale made on

Days between

Books sold

3/17/2021

3/19/2021

2

1

3/21/2021

3/23/2021

2

1

3/25/2021

3/26/2021

1

1

3/27/2021

3/28/2021

1

1

3/29/2021

3/30/2021

1

1

4/1/2021

4/3/2021

2

1

4/6/2021

4/8/2021

2

1

4/8/2021

4/9/2021

1

1

4/12/2021

4/14/2021

2

1

4/14/2021

probably 4-17

2-3

1

And now, here’s the same for The ABCs of 21.  I had to go back further than 30 days to show more activity, but it’s still fucked up.  

Rank jump on

Sale made on

Days between

Books sold

8/30/2020

9/6/2020

7

1

 

10/28/2020

???

1

11/12/2020

11/15/2020

3

1

11/27/2020

12/1/2020

4

1

11/30/2020

12/2/2020

2

1

 

12/5/2020

???

1

 

3/10/2021

???

1

3/18/2021

3/21/2021

3

1

 

3/28/2021

???

4

4/2/2021

4/4/2021

2

1

 

4/13/2021

???

1


Different, huh?  Look at the sales on 3/28.  You’re trying to tell me I sold FOUR BOOKS ON ONE DAY and the RANKING DIDN’T CHANGE A BIT?

Well, Amazon is telling me that.

I’ve written to them (well, we’ve gone back and forth) about this, and every time, they say the same thing using different words:

  • “…there are multiple factors that determine the rank of a book and we cannot share our sales rank algorithms and related criteria. Sales, categories, other books determine the ranks, you are being monitoring your tittles but there are lot of tittles that will include on how the rank of your books change.”

  • “I do understand your concern, let me explain you how does it works. I've confirmed that the ranking for your book(s) is correct. There are multiple factors that determine the rank of a book and we cannot share our sales rank algorithms and related criteria.”
  • “I've checked your book and also confirmed that the ranking for your book(s) is correct as my colleague previously have mentioned.  There are multiple factors that determine the rank of a book and we cannot share our sales rank algorithms and related criteria.”

So, according to Amazon, all is well.  Certainly not their spelling and/or grammar, but that’s a discussion for another day.

After three days of arguing, I gave up (for a time) and went back to check my other books.  As I mentioned, I don’t sell many of ‘em, so I had to dig further, but I found that they also do the same “Rank up, wait two days, Sale posted” dance.  Except…one of the books shows “weirdly” in the graph.  Like so:

Units Ordered = 0?  Then what are those little bumps for?

And so far, Amazon hasn’t responded to this.  Can’t imagine why.

So why is this such a big deal?  Two reasons; first, success begets success.  I know that higher-ranked books sell better because potential customers are lazy and won’t scroll through hundreds of titles to find what they’re looking for.  If you’re not in the top few pages, forget it.  I know this is so because I sell more books when I “sell more books;” also, I do the same thing.

The second reason is far more important.  If this is happening to my account, it CAN’T be the ONLY problem.  I know this because of another situation a long time ago when I argued with my former ISP about our business website.  Overnight, all my changes disappeared and an older version was in its place.  I knew what happened – they backed up and restored the wrong version, and if it happened to my website it happened to a slew of others.  But when I called Tech Support, I got the old runaround about how I must have done something wrong and how I needed to clear my cache and perhaps reboot my system and on and on.  I finally was able to talk to the head of the firm (who was a customer of the ice cream shop, so he knew me), and sure as shit, they discovered I was right.  This happened again not two months later, and…same thing.  I got the runaround, I called the President, and they had to admit they were wrong and I was right and they restored the correct version.  Again.

From then on, I had no further problems when calling Tech Support, most likely because they had a large black asterisk next to my name which meant “Don’t fuck with the old man; he knows what he’s doing.”

I hope that Amazon will also install a black asterisk next to my name soon.