I’m Having Trouble Understanding This. Can You Help?

Amazon's logo or Peyronie's disease?

Before I tell you the story, I need to give you some background.  Full disclosure and all that, so that you don’t think this is coming from a feeling of getting ripped off.  I just genuinely do not understand how this company does what it does.

The gist of it:

• I have been shopping online for years.
• I have been shopping online with Amazon for years.
• Up until this last purchase, I’ve never had a problem with anything ordered from Amazon.
• Even though there was a problem, I am satisfied with the end result and I will continue to shop Amazon.
• I just don’t understand what happened – or why.

We ordered three sets of curtain rods for the new house.  It was a bit of an unusual order in that two of the three sets were long rods (one was 180 inches, another 240”).  All three were of the same style and color, made by the same company (the aptly-named “Rod Desyne”), and all three were handled by “Amazon Fulfillment.”  Here’s where it gets weird:

• All three were shipped in the same size box.
• Each rod set was shipped on different, separate days.
• Two came by USPS and one by UPS.

Still, it wasn’t until I was putting up the third (and longest) rod that I noticed that two small parts were missing from this last shipment.  Yeah, I should have checked all three first when they arrived – stupid me.  I went online to see about getting those two missing parts (which came in a small box inside the bigger box).  There were only options for return or replacing the whole item, and since part of it was already up, that wasn’t happening.

So I used the online chat feature to see if I could get the two small parts that were missing from the third rod sent to me.  The customer service rep only gave me two options – return the item (like I said, not happening) or accept a $15 credit for the missing parts.  I asked if I could use that $15 toward ordering the two missing parts, and was informed that I’d have to buy the whole rod ($15 didn’t cover it by a long shot).  I told the rep that wasn’t acceptable, and disconnected the chat.

Then I noticed that you could have a rep call you.  I thought that maybe if I actually spoke with a real person, I’d have a chance to explain what I needed and actually get results.  I clicked “call me” and just like that, the phone rang.  I spoke with a real person (who sounded like English was their first language) and explained my situation.  Unlike the first rep, this one had a way to get those missing parts to me.  Sort of.  Here’s what he said:

“We’ll ship you another complete rod set.  Take out the two missing parts and then send the rest of it back to us.  All on our cost, of course.”

Rather than ship me just what I needed, they shipped me the whole thing, all over again, and then, after taking my two parts, I sent it back to them with the label they provided.  Just like he said – no cost to me.  And while it was “easy,” it certainly could not have been cheap to do this.  I received confirmation yesterday that they’ve received my return, so we’re all good (and now I can talk about it – I didn’t want to jinx it before everything was deal with).

So here’s what I don’t understand.  Yes, this act “kept the customer satisfied” but couldn’t the same results be achieved with a simpler and LESS EXPENSIVE method?  I have to assume that I’m not the only customer who received an item with missing parts.  Do they do this with EVERYONE?

Remember, Amazon made more than ELEVEN BILLION DOLLARS in 2018.

They also paid ZERO in Federal Income tax.

I don’t understand that, either.  Anyone have a clue?  Post it.  Thanks.

What’s (Left) in Your Wallet?

Now that the holidays are over and everyone is back to work, let’s talk about the economy.  First, the good news:

• Christmas sales are expected to be up about 5% from last year.  Most retailers (except Apple) are pleased with the results.
• Today’s job numbers (for December jobs added) were stellar, much better than anticipated, and while the unemployment rate ticked up a bit, it’s still historically low, under 4%.
• 2018 showed solid U.S. GDP growth.  This along with the strong holiday sales point to an American economy that is more solid than fluctuating stock markets would suggest. 
• Consumer confidence is still high.

But we’ll get back to the stock market in a moment.  Now, the not-so-good news:

• Interest rates are up, making it more costly to borrow.
• The housing market is slowing down, partly due to those rising interest rates.
• The government is shut down, meaning that there are 800,000 government workers without pay – some still working, others furloughed.
• Bonus: an Executive Order froze all government salary rates for 2019.
• China's soybean imports from the United States plunged to zero in November, thanks to new tariffs.
• We’re still in a trade war.  Tariffs are impacting more than soybeans – cars, appliances, solar installations – many industries are just now feeling the pinch.  There are plant closings, layoffs, and bankruptcies of American institutions like Sears, Rockport, and Remington.
• The U.S. debt is rising.  So is the trade deficit.
• The global economy, while robust in 2017, is slowing, as evidenced by sputtering Germany factories and sluggish Chinese retail sales.  This, along with a strong dollar, is likely to hamper U.S. exports.

And getting back to the stock market – it’s taking a big jump today (based on those December job numbers).  This offsets the previous dip, so that for the year we’ll be just a smidge above where we started.  And, of course, the market has been in decline since October.  For the first time since 2008, stocks finished lower for the year.  It was the worst December since 1931.  Neither 1931 (Great Depression) nor 2008 (Great Recession) were harbingers of “good times ahead.”  So what’s REALLY happening with the market, and with the economy?

It’s the volatility, stupid.  Check out these graphs of the Dow.  It’s like watching wrestling – he’s up, he’s down, he’s up again.  But with BIG swings.  Some might say YUGE, both up and down, though again, the trend now is on the downside. 

This was last Friday, 12/28.  A wild ride that ended just a little lower than where it started.

Here's 2018 up to 12/18.  Peaks and valleys and we end on a BIG down note.

And here's the last five years - Obama's three (all up), and Trump's two (up and down).

To say, “there’s a great deal of volatility here” is putting it mildly.  The stock market is sometimes called a barometer of the economy, but the fact is that most Americans don’t own stocks (most are owned by the richest 10% and foreigners), so those numbers don’t mean squat to the average worker trying to live paycheck to paycheck.  And yet, the market is one of several indicators that show where we are in the economy. 

We know that the “great inequality” between the 1% and “everyone else” is growing.  The rich are getting richer, and the rest of us?  Not so much.  The tax reform act that passed last year sent more money to people who already had more money.  Touted as a “jobs act,” it created few jobs – there were some companies that expanded operations (because demand called for it), but most of the money went to something that until 1982 was illegal – stock buybacks.

In 2018 corporations spent a record $1 trillion buying back shares of their own stock (they’ve been doing this for years – they just went nuts last year).  These massive buybacks only pad the bonuses of corporate executives and wealthy investors, and provide no real benefit to the economy. 

Oh, and they artificially inflate stock values. So the market, which is off about 5% from 2017, could have been much worse off.  And 2017 should have been a good year, because across the globe economies experienced record growth.  The U.S. stock market has actually done worse than most of the developed world in 2017.  As a percent change in dollars, the U.S. has lagged behind the stock indices of France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Spain, Japan, China, India, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Argentina, and Chile.

A year ago, I wrote a few blog posts (here, here, and here) about the tax cuts and last year’s government shutdown (is this an annual affair now, like January White Sales?).  I predicted that things wouldn’t turn out well, and I was right.  Eventually.  Yes, nothing happened right away, but the economy is like a steamship – it’s doesn’t just “turnaround” that quickly.

Personal Full Disclosure:  shortly after that last post on January 20, we unloaded our stock portfolio.  We’ve been “in the market” since the 80s and while I hated to do it, we feared the volatility of the market, not wanted to risk what little nest egg we had built up.  The timing wasn’t perfect to be sure, and there were times when I almost regretted the decision, but now we look smart.

Meanwhile, the interest rate on our HELOC has gone up a full point, while our savings are still mired in rates that would embarrass Ebenezer Scrooge.  Inflation is not that bad.  OK, the reported inflation rate isn’t bad, but the government has changed the way it calculates inflation more than 20 times.  If you’ve purchased meds, food, or tuition, you know what you’re paying now is more than what you paid last year.  This website calculated a “Shadow Inflation Rate” that sounds far more realistic.  And scary.

So what’s in store for the rest of 2019?  Uncertainty.  I don’t mean that I’m not certain what to expect, I mean I expect uncertainty.  That’s going to play havoc with the markets, with planning, with people’s incomes and lives.  It’s going to be a very bumpy ride.

And you haven’t even seen the new tax forms yet, have you?  You’ll shit.