The Coming @$!*&$%!, 2018

Alternative Title:  What Good is a $1000 Bonus if you’ve Been Laid Off?

I really wasn’t sure what noun to use in place of the “@$!*&$%!” in the title.  Depression?  Collapse?  Armageddon?  Shitstorm??  I was looking for something that conveys a worrisome time – and this was when I was actually more optimistic about the upcoming year.

No, really.  I tried very hard to be optimistic, and in the short run, I suppose things are looking up.  We’re hoping 2018 is what 2017 was supposed to be – we sell the business, retire, build and then move into a new home.  And while it’s true that we’ve been looking forward to retirement for some time, recent events make it clear that once we hand off the business to a new owner, we damn well better retire because the job market ain’t lookin’ so hot.

Sure, sure, I know what you’re about to say – what about that “Tax Cuts and Jobs Act” that the GOP just passed.

Do not make me laugh.

I am currently reading Rise of the Robots by Martin Ford.  It’s scary stuff about how automation is not just making many blue collar jobs disappear, but as technology improves, it’s white collar, high tech, high-end jobs that are vanishing, too.  I’ve known about how automation can reshape an industry – as a former radio DJ, I realize that damn near everything today on-air is digital, including the jock.  Live DJ’s are as rare as 45s.  Or albums.  Or hell, CDs.

And who isn’t familiar with ATM’s?  Now just for cash – many race tracks have fewer ticket windows and more self-serve betting machines.  Casinos with poker rooms are replacing live dealers with automated tables.  Vending machines nowadays dispense all kinds of foods (hot, cold, frozen), and many non-food items.  Self-serve checkouts.  Self-serve ordering kiosks.  Roombas.  No people, no jobs…just machines.

You only need pick up a newspaper (where many articles are actually written by computers) and see where many companies (including ones bragging about handing out bonuses just recently after the aforementioned “Tax Cuts and Jobs Act”) are either laying off hundreds or thousands of workers, or planning to in the coming year.  There is even a website where you can learn all about new layoffs, all the time.  Layoffs in steel, healthcare, and, of course, manufacturing.   Ford, Microsoft, Boeing, GE, Kraft, AT&T, and Carrier - layoffs galore.  Not creating jobs – eliminating them.

This is nothing new.  Job creation ever since the Great Recession has been steady, but it’s mainly low-to-mid paying jobs in the service sector.  Few jobs in manufacturing.  This year, despite the self-congratulatory prose from Trump, looks to be the lowest year for new job creation since 2010.

BTW – very few products with any kind of “Trump” branding – ties, jewelry, water, vodka, suits, etc – is made in the USA.  Just sayin’ is all.

Combine automation with off-shoring, and it means fewer jobs for Americans.  And that’s the wave of the future.  Why would companies do this?  To make more money.  You can easily see that the future looks dim for everyone but the very rich, those already secure in their largess.  More and more jobs will become automated – skilled jobs, service jobs, tech jobs, white collar jobs, all sorts of jobs that can be handles by a robot or algorithm; not just the manufacturing section.  Of course, to implement more automation, corporations would need a very large infusion of cash.

Where, oh where, could they get such an infusion?  Why, the “Tax Cuts and Jobs Act,” of course.

Oooops.

Well, like I said, it’s nothing I have to worry about.  After all, I am looking forward to retirement, and as long as the GOP and Trump keep their grubby mitts off Social Security and Medicare, I am set for life.

Oooops.

Happy New Year, everyone.  Buckle up.

And Now Watch What Happens (Tax Reform Edition)

"...and they believed me when I said everyone benefits!"

This is one of those “though experiment” things that I like to do.  In this case, it’s to illustrate what’s REALLY going on with the so-called “Tax Cut and Jobs Act” a.k.a. “GOP Tax Heist.”  Trumpkins are already calling the largest tax modification in decades a, “boon to the economy” (even though it won’t take effect until 2018).  More sane Americans are calling it what it is – the scam of the Century (and remember that we’ve already had the BIG Bush tax giveaway to the rich earlier).

Corporate America is also reacting to the new tax laws – many big firms like AT&T, Comcast, Boeing, Wells Fargo, and others – are giving $1,000 bonuses and promising pay raises to their employees.  This is seen as a big deal, proof that the GOP knows what’s best for the economy.  In the case of AT&T, that’s a thousand bucks to more than 200,000 employees.  That would be a total handout of more than $200 million (200,000x1000).  Keep that in mind for a minute.

So here’s the thought experiment.  Say you’re about to come into some money.  With almost no strings attached.  It’s yours to keep, but…as you’re being given this money you are surrounded by your brother, sister, a couple of cousins, four neighbors, and a couple of school chums – ten people in total.   And that’s the only string – you have to give 10% of what you get to the others, to be divided up evenly (effectively 1% to each).  You keep 90% and give 10% to the others - or you can’t have any of it.

• So if you get $10, you get $9 and they get $1 to split (10 cents each).  Big deal – you might just say, “forget it.”
• If you get $1,000, you have to give them $100 ($10 each).  You still keep $900…yeah, maybe.
• Say you get a million.  $900 grand for you, $100K for them ($10,000 each).  Sure, why not – you’ve still got life-changing money in $900,000.
• Upping the ante one more time – you get $100 million.  Ten percent is $10 million, making everyone a millionaire, and you – you’re now part of the richest 1%.  You wouldn’t even have to think about it.  Give the 10% - hell, you could give a lot more – and you’re still rolling in more dough than 99% will ever see in a lifetime.

By the way – AT&T had a profit last year of $13 Billion.  And $200 million is just 1.5% of that. 

Oh, and did you know AT&T paid NO federal tax in 2011?  In fact, they received a refund of more than $400 million (they’ve paid modest federal taxes since then, but nowhere near their profits).  And it’s not surprising to learn that many other big firms pay little to nothing in taxes – in fact, some pay their CEO’s more than they pay in taxes.

Remind me – why are we giving these already-hugely-profitable and sitting-on-wads-of-cash corporations MORE money?  Oh, that’s right – to create jobs.

And how many CEO’s are talking about creating more jobs with their new found windfalls? Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha!  Unemployment is low, manufacturing jobs are going overseas (or to Mexico – see “Carrier”).   Just 14% of CEOs in a recent survey say they plan to sink money into capital investments that might create jobs.  You know damn well what the other 86% think about their government hand-out.  Even if they won’t say it.

Here’s the thing - to me, all of this bonus and pay hike talk is “nice” but it’s merely window dressing.  Public relations.  Propaganda, even.  You know right-wing groups plan to spend millions more to put lipstick on this pig put together a public relations campaign to make the new tax laws more “attractive.”  As of now, it’s one of the least popular tax CUTS in history – even more unpopular than some tax HIKES.

That sucks, bigly.

Face it - almost all that money is going to the richest corporations and the richest individuals.  Take Sheldon Adelson – please.  Seriously, with his tax SAVINGS, he could give every individual in America – every man, woman, and child – nearly fifty bucks (he’s saving more than $14 BILLION).  He and the big corporations have plenty of money to toss around like this...when J&J Plumbing and the local candy store start passing out bonuses and pay hikes, then I will believe that the tax plan is for everyone.   Until then, this is just enough chicken feed to keep people from really thinking about what a screw job this is gonna be.

PS:   Many of you know that I own a small business, and I've run my own numbers with the information that's been released on this tax plan.  There are no $1,000 bonuses planned for any of our staff, I can assure you - not because I don't want to, but the tax plan offers little incentive (and even less cash) to do this.  And I will hire more people when I need to because there are more people wanting to buy ice cream, not because I got a tax cut.  Besides, $900 will only go so far.