An Idea for Better Debates

Well, this is one idea...

The first Presidential Debate of 2020 was everything it was billed to be if you thought it would be the worst possible debate, ever.  Interruptions, rudeness, constant lying – there was no room for an honest debate of policies or future plans with all of that crap flying around.  Immediately this morning there were both calls for reform and promises to “do better,” but if we really want to provide a forum to allow Americans to see their candidates and their platforms and judge who is truly best to lead us, I would like to see some very big changes that frankly, I’ve not seen suggested elsewhere.

Let me first mention one other issue that came up before the debate; the issue that one or both of the candidates would “get the questions ahead of time.”  They were given the subject matter before hand, but not the actual questions the moderator would ask.

Why the hell not?

Some of the classes I taught were set up so that whatever exams I gave were “open book, open note.”  I was not interested in grading what students had memorized; I wanted to know what they knew, if they knew where to find it, and most importantly, how to use that information in making decisions.  Life is open book – you don’t “memorize” a procedures manual, or a recipe booklet.  You feel free to look up information so you get it right.  That’s how it works in the working world, and that’s how I set up my exams.  Find the information, and then tell me what you’d do and how you’d do it with the information you learned.

As that relates to the debates, each candidate would know what questions were on the menu, and would be given an opportunity to prepare a presentation based on that question.  Each presentation would be no more than 5 minutes long.  What about charts, graphs, and PowerPoint presentations?  Sure, why not?  Hey, it’s kinda like those presentations at work, or even on that “Apprentice” TV show.  It just might appeal to candidates with business backgrounds.

After each candidate had their five minutes, there would be a two minute rebuttal from a team the candidate puts together (I’m thinking a group of three).  They would dissect the opponent’s presentation, calling out falsehoods and misleading data.  This would act as the fact-checking function in the debate.  After each rebuttal, there would be a one-minute re-rebuttal of the rebuttal, stating where the rebuttal team got it wrong and restating their candidate’s salient points.

One more thing.  The debates would be on a one-minute delay.  The moderator and the control booth would both have a mute button for the microphones for the candidates and his/her (I’m always optimistic) support team.  The mic would be muted anytime the subject matter was NOT of the specific question (y’know, that ol’ not-answering-the-question but stating-your-talking-points-regardless tactic).  The candidate wouldn’t realize his/her mic was muted until it actually happened; viewers would suddenly hear no sound and merely see the candidate’s lips move. 

Yeah, you could use the same tactic for lying, but then millions of Americans might believe their TV sets were busted.

The MAC Makes it Official – the World is Nuts

On Friday, the Mid-American Conference did an about face on cancelling the 2020 Fall Football Season, joining the Big 10 and the Pac 12 in reneging on what was a smart decision.  On a day when the national case count was its highest in weeks, when games were being postponed because players were infected, when campuses across the country announced high-level case breakouts in fraternities and dormitories…

...someone thought it was a good idea to play football.

I love college football; it’s my favorite sport to indulge.  I have five “alma maters” I pull for weekly; schools I went to (Eastern Michigan), schools I taught at (EMU, Boise State, and Louisiana – Monroe, and schools I have no other association with other than I lived there (Michigan – I was born in Ann Arbor), and Oregon (lived in Eugene back in the 80s).  Every week my wife loses me to the Internet where I gorge on live radio broadcasts of everyone playing.  I’d indulge at the sportsbook too, if the Oregon Lottery’s Scoreboard too collegiate bets (they don’t, but that’s the least of their problems since they also have a habit of going off line on Sundays during the NFL season – don’t start me here). 

Anyway, suffice to say that when COVID became a threat to all sports, I realized that sacrifices would have to be made, and sports would go on the back burner.  Four of my five teams were in conferences that weren’t playing, and Louisiana – Monroe…isn’t going to show up on anyone’s Top 25.  I don’t get excited about the SEC, and I supposed I could find someone to root for in the Big 12 (which only has 10 members unlike the Big 10 which has…14).  And you wonder why kids today can’t do math.

Face it, especially with college sports, it’s not mandatory for the sake of the nation that young men and women go out and engage in physical feats of athletic prowess just so we fans can live through them vicariously, nor is it necessary to actually receive a college education by having sports teams.  You might have heard of Antioch College, no?  Pretty good academic institution.  No athletics.

What drives college sport is what drives pretty much everything – money.  Athletic departments and universities bemoaned the idea of going without all of that money from ticket sales, fan gear, and TV revenue.  So did ESPN, I’ll bet.  So however it happened, the decision to not play somehow was overruled by “It’ll be fine, probably” thinking and here we are.  The late-starting conferences won’t begin until the good weather has gone, and the seasons will last until it’s bowl time.  Roses in the Snow, Part Two?

It pains me to say that if the colleges won’t stick to their guns, I must stick to mine.  I supported the decision not to play.  I sighed heavily when the Big 10 went back on its word.  I kicked something, hard, when the PAC 12 and then the Mountain West and finally the MAC caved and said, “Let’s play.”

Sorry, guys – I am all out of fucks to give.  Sure, this might be the year Jim Harbaugh and his Wolverines finally beat OSU (even if I could bet on it, I wouldn’t).  Boise State was a favorite to win the Mountain West, and the Ducks of Oregon were favored in the PAC 12.  College football is athletics at its best; exciting, thrilling, fun to watch and listen to.

But not this year.  I just can’t.

Boy, I sure hope no one dies.  Oh, wait…

The Destruction of "The Norms"

Since Friday and the untimely death of Supreme Court Justice Ruther Bader Ginsburg, there’s been a lot of discussion about the SCOTUS.  Some of it deals with “norm-busting,” the idea that here in the US we have cherished “norms,” rules and procedures that simply MUST be followed when implementing things like, say, selecting a new Supreme Court Justice.  Amazingly (to some, not me), the loudest cries come from Republicans who worry that when/if Democrats and Joe Biden come to power, they’ll “pack” the Supreme Court with new justices beyond the “traditional” nine and shift the balance of power.  “Unfair if they do this,” the GOP bawls, which can be translated as “What a splendid idea – sorry we didn’t think of it first!”

No, seriously.

If you Google “norm-busting” you’ll find that the most norm-buster stories have to do with Trump and the Republicans.  Not as complainers, but as conspirators. 

Consider their last convention (Trump using the White House as a backdrop), violating the Hatch Act, using the White House to campaign, refusing to introduce the Speaker at the SOTU, not unveiling the previous President’s official WH portrait, not releasing his taxes…oh c’mon, you get the daily news, don’t you?  Well, one more – leaving the Supreme Court at EIGHT justices for 14 months (2016-7). 

For those of you who insist that we need to have nine justices right away because we’ve ALWAYS had nine justices (except that 14 month stretch noted above), know that the number originally was six, and was modified to nine in 1869.  We’ve made modifications to our Constitution, too (got rid of that problem 3/5^th man thing, let women vote, some other stuff), and while it’s hard to find a red hat who doesn’t know we have FIFTY great states, I’m old enough to know when we have 48.  And we had a flag to prove it.

For fun – find out how West Virginia became a state in 1863, and then find out which party “broke the norms” (hint: they wear red hats).  For extra fun, learn about Nevada, too (yup – that same party in an effort to hand on to the Presidency – where have we heard THAT before?).

It’s clear that, when it comes to norm-busting in the U.S., it’s been going on for a long, long time, and it seems that no matter what norm is being busted, there’s a good chance a Republican is behind it.  I’m sure the Democrats have had a few norm-busting moments (looking at YOU, FDR), but in our day and age the norm-busters tend to be elephants.

Elephants with bad memories, because besides being norm-busters they’re also hypocrites, making up new rules as they go along.  They either decry something Democrats are considering and then, when the smoke clears, do it themselves; or they do it first, then whine and bitch that it can’t be done now, “because it’s different because something something yargle bargle bleh.”

It’s like playing football with the kid who says to you,

“When we have the ball we need to go 8 yards in 5 plays and if we score a touchdown it’s 9 points and when you get the ball you need to go 13 yards in 3 plays and if you score a touchdown it’s 5 points.”

“But why is it different?” You ask.

“Simple – we’re headed south and the sun is in our eyes.  Oh, did I mention my brother will act as referee.”

Bottom line – when/if Joe Biden and the Democrats come to power in 2021 (I am an optimistic realist), they better DAMN WELL bust some norms.  Pack the court.  Bring in DC and Puerto Rico as states (fuck it – threaten to divide California into EIGHT STATES just so we have 60 and a nice, round number).  Ditch the Electoral College. Yes, I know that’s a long shot that requires the states to be on board, but it’s been tried before – in my lifetime – and considering that 6 of the last seven Republican Presidential candidates have LOST the popular, vote it’s an idea whose time has come.

If the Dems don’t do this, I will NEVER contribute to a ball-less Democrat again.  Of course, if they don’t do this, I may never have the opportunity to do so.  The norm-busting GOP may see to that in 2024.

Why I am (still) Concerned About COVID

As you know, we’ve crossed the 200K threshold.  That’s right – at least 200,000 people have died from COVID-19.  That’s a helluva landmark, and we’ll discuss that in a moment, but first, I wanted to explain why I am concerned about the virus.

Truth is, I’ve always been concerned.  When we first started to hear stories from Wuhan last January about how everyone was locked up inside and there were deaths-a-plenty, I was concerned (OK, spooked – there were some really eerie images floating around then).  China seems far away, but here in Oregon a flight to Wuhan is shorter than, say, Athens, Greece. 

Later, when the first cases arrived on the US mainland, they were in Washington (state), which of course borders us.  So naturally I was concerned.  Then more and more reports of the virus, and soon it was March and the US was reporting a thousand cases a day, then two thousand, then four thousand, then lots more.  When we had 20,000 cases in one day and states starting taking action to limit the spread of the virus (masks, stay-at-home, closing schools, etc.), I really became concerned.

It seems so quaint now.  There we were, hunkered down, seeing somewhere between 20-40,000 cases a day, and one-to-two-thousand deaths daily, and many or us were worried.  But soon the cases declined and the President set up a commission and pretty soon everyone clamored to reopen and get the economy moving again.

And the virus, which never really left and barely abated, ramped up feverously (that’s the only pun I will use here).

Now, nearly seven million cases later, we ‘re at that “200,000 dead” mark. 

My concern has always been not catching COVID, because if I do, I have a 90% chance of living through it.  To you, that may not sound bad, but as a poker player I can attest to the number of times I’ve been a 9-to-1 favorite headed into the river card, knowing my opponent needs that lucky break to bust me, and…bang.  He hits it.  In regular poker, all that means is I lose the hand and the money invested in that hand.  In tournament poker, if I’m “all in” and I lose, I lose it all, and I’m out of the game.

Life is like tournament poker, except here there are no “rebuys.”  When you’re out, you’re out.

I don’t want to be out.  Not yet.

And hey, we haven’t even begun to discuss what happens when you catch COVID and survive yet suffer lasting damage to lungs, immune system, etc.  I don’t want any of that shit, either.

So I remain concerned.  And amazed, because it’s been nearly a year and there still is absolutely NO NATIONAL PLAN dealing with this virus.  No mandatory mask rule, no…nothing.  In fact, just the opposite.  There’s outright distain from doing anything about it; it’s all about reopening schools, football, and the economy.  Sure, they bailed out a bunch of corporations and gave suffering individuals a paltry $1200 each and some unemployment benefit boosts (temporary fixes, of course, and full disclosure: We never received our $1200 CARES checks and yes I wrote my congressperson about it), but the focus has never been about slowing or stopping the virus.

It’s as if they were completely unprepared for this and have no idea how to combat it.  And that’s because they were and are.

Back near the end of March, when deaths numbered just over 4,000 TOTAL, our fearless leader said, “It’s a horrible number [but] if we have between 100,000 and 200,000 (deaths), we all together have done a very good job.”

Now we have more than 200,000 dead. 

Hint:  You have not done a very good job.

I am still concerned.

BTW, to show I’m not blowing smoke about that 90%-to-the-good” idea, here’s a recent poker hand in a tournament I was playing (one of those short-handed games).  We’re down to me and one other player.  I catch the magic hand – pocket aces – and I raise.  My opponent calls.  I was 87% assured of winning the hand.

The flop is garbage – a possible low straight, sure, but when my opponent checks, I make a pot-size bet.  He raises!  Obviously, he’s either (a) got it, or (b) making some sort of bluff.  I just call.  At this point I am a 97% favorite.

The turn card is a king, giving him a pair, but…he checks.  I make another pot-size bet and he goes ALL IN.  I call, because I believe I am still the favorite (and I am, statistically – now just 88% ).  He needs one of the last two kings in the deck to win, or one of the three 8s.  You know what happened.  

King.

I am dead.

200K - Did Trump Help or Hurt?

So now as we discuss the 200K dead (and rising) from COVID (“underlying conditions” or not), we focus on Donald Trump’s role in all of this.  Today’s question is simple – did Donald Trump help or hinder the spread of COVID in the USA?

Obviously, unless you live under a rock, the widespread virus has been the cause (or the catalyst) for many, many more dead people than normal in 2020.  Slowing/stopping the spread of the virus would save lives; helping to “fan the flames” by making it more likely to catch/spread the virus would put lives in jeopardy.

Donald Trump did one of these things.  He could not have done both.  So, which is it?

Listen to Trump today and it’s clear he thinks he did a good job.  “It could have been worse” is the response you usually get for why 200K dead is a “good job.”

Fact is, we’re the #1 country for both deaths and cases, and before you say anything, we rank in the top 10 for both deaths-per-capita and cases-per-capita (of countries that are bigger than a frickin’ island, of course).  We’re in the basement, not the penthouse, and Trump wants you to believe it could be worse.

It could be, but not much.  It sucks.  Bad.  Let’s make that clear.

When Trump talks about “what he did” to stop the virus, he usually talks about his “China Ban” and ramping up ventilators and tests.  His website has a whole list of his “historical” response.  If you read the “key takeaways” you see some exaggerations, some lies, and some things that really don’t do anything to stop the virus or protect Americans from it.  Here are four I find galling:

• Built the world’s leading testing system from nothing
• Took action to protect vulnerable Americans
• Paved way for reopening to get America working again
• Confronted China as origin of the virus while Democrats and media cowered

My responses, briefly:

• Naturally, there was no testing system before this – it’s a new virus.  Duh.
• No specifics here – I defy anyone to tell me what the hell this means, exactly.
• This doesn’t protect us (see more below)
• China never denied being the origin…and how does that last part help, anyway.

The rest of his list is in a similar vein, full of puffery and bravado; a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying…well, you know how that ends.  Oh, and don’t forget the grift.

But let’s say that I’m wrong, and he really DID do everything he says he did.  How effective was it all?  Why do we lead the world in cases and deaths?  Why is the virus STILL killing thousands of Americans every week?

Before we answer that, remember that this is a guy who had a casino and went bankrupt.  Correction – he had THREE casinos, nearly a quarter of the business in Atlantic City, and ALL THREE went belly up.  CASINOS!  Where the house has the edge every single time.  During a period when the AVERAGE profit margin for an Atlantic City casino was more than 40%.  However Trump ran his casinos, they did not make money.

Conclusion: what Trump did then was ineffective in making a profit and saving his businesses.

Regarding the virus – conclusion:  what Trump did was ineffective in stopping/slowing the virus.

But now here’s the REAL question:  did he actually do the opposite?  Did he actually help spread the virus, making more Americans likely to get sick (and in some cases, die)?  That would be one of the worst scandals in history.

• We all know now that he purposely downplayed the severity of the virus, not wanting to cause “panic” (this is the guy screaming about immigrant caravans coming to rape and murder you, mind you). 
• In fact, he’s made many misleading, conflicting, and minimizing statements to the public about the virus (Congressman Lloyd Doggett of Texas has a wonderful timeline here).
• We know that he’s steadfastly refused to wear a mask and encourages others not to do so. 
• He’s mocked Joe Biden and others for their mask-wearing, so Trump is hardly “leading by example” here.
• We know that he continues to hold rallies and events where his fanbase packs the seats, ignoring social distancing and few if any wear masks. 
• We know that in the past these events have helped to spread the virus, leading to death (Herman Cain was unavailable for comment). 
• He’s ignored and undermined Dr. Fauci and other experts when it comes to the virus. 
• He’s promoted questionable “cures and remedies” for COVID, causing confusion, medical shortages, and, unfortunately, death.  
• Finally, his administration has interfered with the CDC reports regarding COVID in order to more closely align with Trump’s messaging.

Call it a “total lack of leadership” if you will, but all of these actions certainly do not help slow or stop the spread of the virus.  In fact, the opposite is true – his fan base still shows up sans masks, packed in tighter than sardines, all the while STILL calling the virus a “hoax” and declaring “there is no COVID,” or downplaying the actual death count.

And all you really need to do is study the death count. 

We’re #1.  Still.

There’s no national plan for containing/controlling/slowing/stopping the virus.  Still.

Trump has failed, utterly.  Trump has made it worse.  Again.

#ETTD.  Literally. 

Horror in Henderson

Donald Trump held his first indoor campaign event on Sunday in Henderson, NV.  It was the first such event since his “Embarrassment at the Tulsa, OK Corral.”  The whole idea of indoor events with throngs of people standing shoulder to shoulder has been unthinkable since then as COVID-19 ramped up all summer long in the states.  In fact, there are restrictions against indoor gatherings of 50 or more in Nevada at this time.

But pesky things like rules and laws didn’t stop Trump.  If you watched the images you were supposed to see, you saw Trump at the podium with a crowd of fans behind him, all of them safely wearing masks (no social distancing, though).  

Plenty of masks.  No people of color, though.

This was the ONLY group that was masked, as it was MANDATORY in order to sit in the back.  This served two purposes – made for a “good image” for Trump, and helped protect the known germophobe.  The rest of the crowd inside the event and those on the outside were mostly mask-less and packed in like sardines.

Mask-less and Clue-less

And speaking about those images, all the major networks (including Fox) decided to sit this one out.  Local stations were inside as did the members of the White House Press Pool.  Still, one source said, “There is definitely some anxiety in the pool,” as the seats were kept close together and “no serious attempts at COVID containment.”

Trump knows how dangerous the virus is.  In an April 13 interview with Bob Woodward, he retold a story about the virus.  He said it’s “…so easily transmissible, you wouldn't even believe it. I was in the White House a couple of days ago.  Meeting of 10 people in the Oval Office.  And a guy sneezed, innocently.  Not a horrible—just a sneeze.  The entire room bailed out, okay?  Including me, by the way.”

That’s why he’s tested regularly.  His staff is tested regularly.  The staff at the event in Henderson were all wearing masks, and they outlined the floorway for him to walk to and from the podium with plenty of space between him and the crowd.  He feels confident that he’s protected, telling the Reno newspaper, “I’m on a stage and it’s very far away, and so I’m not at all concerned.”

Yet he still held this event.  Indoors.  At a site whose owner has already been fined before for holding events in defiance of the 50-or-more restriction (a beauty pageant and a Trump fundraiser).  Officials in Henderson warned Don Ahern, owner of Xtrmeme Manufacturing where the rally was held, that he would be in violation (again) of the restrictions.  Nevada Governor Steve Sisolak minced no words.  “At a time when Nevada is focused on getting our economy back on track and protecting public health, the president’s actions this weekend are shameful, dangerous and irresponsible.”

 

Trump responded to the threat of fines in typical Trump fashion.  Speaking to Ahern, Trump said, “If the governor comes after you, which he shouldn’t be doing, I’ll be with you all the way.”

So, to recap:

• Trump cares about his own health, and takes many precautions to avoid the virus
• He could care less about anyone else
• He could care less about rules designed to protect everyone else

Got that?  Oh, and it’s not just my opinion.  Here’s Tim Miller, who USED to be the spokesperson for the Republican National Committee:  “…it was so appalling that it would stand out as the single most appalling and reckless political event hosted by any presidential nominee in my lifetime before yesterday by a long shot, if you just didn’t count anything else that Donald Trump did.”

And we still have almost two months to go.  Buckle up.

Stuff Always Happens

Why, yes – it HAS been a long time since I posted to this blog.  A lot has happened since last July.  Can that be right?  THIRTEEN MONTHS?  Dang.

Well, let’s recap all that’s happened in those thirteen months, quickly:

• My brother in Michigan suffered a heart attack, and had quad-bypass surgery.
• He had been caring for my mom, who suffered from dementia – she became unresponsive, and passed away in August last year.
• Did I mention these two events occurred simultaneously?  No?  Yeah, that was fun – not.  Spent some time back in Michigan dealing with it all.  The good news is that Tom has recovered nicely, and is back to work.
• My wife and I had our own medical issues.  As of today, three of our four eyes are “fixed” (cataracts and glaucoma); my left eye is slated for early 2021. 
• We also had to replace three of our specialty doctors (and the dentist) due to retirements.  Fortunately, we got great replacements (and young’uns, too, so they’ll be around for a while).
• A plethora of other issues regarding the house, Medicare overbilling (for the insurance, not for specific treatments – that’s been OK so far), and stuff going kablooey around the house (not the new house itself, thankfully).
• Oh, yeah…COVID.  And now forest fires galore in Oregon and the whole west and smoky skies and horrible breathing and…

So let me stop right there.  These are either reasons for not writing here or “excuses” depending on how one wants to at them.  For many months I considered them excuses – I really felt overwhelmed and in no mental state to write in my blog.  Then I realized that writing was sort of cathartic and starting putting “Blog” on my list.  (It is not a “to do” list as I am retired; more of a “possibilities” list).  If I had a nickel for every time I put it on my list I’d have about six or seven dollars by now.  Intentions were good; follow-through was bad.

This is not to say I haven’t been writing.  I’ve written to my Facebook page and even sent out a few tweets.  I usually only respond to tweets, as you can imagine how difficult it is for me to limit my thoughts to 256 characters (OMG I just learned how to LINK TWEETS!).   Goodness knows there’s been plenty to comment on in the world today, but I must admit that more of my time was spent reading others’ posts and hitting the ANGRY icon, which didn’t put me in the right frame of mind to write anything.

But I did write…a book.  A novel, actually.  It’s “just a story” and may not go anywhere (I am shopping for agents and small publishers and so far, nada but I keep trying); still, it felt good to complete it and it gave me a good feeling to do so.  And now that Mona can read again (she no longer needs glasses at ALL), she can read it and probably edit the hell out if it and THEN maybe I can get it published.  We’ll see.

But this week I was determined to do SOMETHING here.  And here we are.  I’d love to say, “I certainly won’t be so long at getting back to the blog” but I hate to promise what I might not be able to deliver (and that’s the secret of running a successful business – or a government – take the hint, Donnie). 

I have a backlog of stuff I think I’d like to put words to paper about.  Believe it or not, I’ve mellowed some in my almost two years of retirement so far, so I won’t be the old curmudgeon that I used to be. 

On the other hand, I still know how to swear, so there still might be an edge.  Plus, the election is less than two months away.  Wheeeeeeee!