Now I don’t mean that we should converse while we bluff, but
we should “tell a story.” For a bluff is
nothing more than a good fable, and if you think back to your childhood (harder
for some than others), you might easily recall one (or more) of your favorite
bedtime stories…and what they had in common.
For me, my fave was “The Three Little Pigs.” You know the story, so I won’t repeat it
here, but it has all the makings of a classic – strong characters (on both the
good and bad side), a compelling narrative with suspense, and an exciting
climax. And your bluffs should be the
same way.
When you are telling your story, it has to be believable
even though it’s not true. Raising on
the button is sooooo cliché – but raising one or two off the button might
actually mean something other than “I’m stealing.” A raise after one or two limpers can also
mean something more, especially if you’re in one of the blinds. At least, that’s the impression you want to
give.
And when that Ace hits the flop, and they check to you, and
you bet about two-thirds the pot like you have an Ace in your hand…that
completes the story as if you’ve been telling them about the brick house (nice analogy,
Mike) all along.
That’s when bluffs work – when they tell a predictable story
and you complete the punch line. When
they don’t work is when no one is paying attention. If you told the Three Little Pigs story to a
bunch of 1st graders, you most likely will have their rapt
attention. If you told the same story to
a bunch of college kids at a kegger…nah.
That’s why you can’t bluff donkeys – not because they don’t know about
bluffs or are ignorant of playing strategy, but because they ARE NOT PAYING THE
LEAST BIT ATTENTION TO YOU.
Another time they don’t work is when you’ve not made any
kind of a lead-up to your punch line.
Traps fall into this category – how often have you seen a player check-call,
check-call, and then, a scary card falls on the turn (completing a flush or
straight) and they shove all-in? What
story is he telling, really? Is it a
bluff, or does he have the nuts?
And here’s where you come in…complete the story above. Does he have it, or not? And why do you feel the way you do? Comment here, and we’ll discuss in a couple
of weeks.
Pareto 80/20. If the opponent is only bluffing 20% of the time, how good does your hand have to be to call the bluff?
ReplyDeleteI'd say I can't answer because it would depend. What's the history with this player? Have they always bet big with the nuts? Do they frequently bluff, or claim to have it? Are they a calling station that hoped to get lucky and then did? More information is needed to make the right call, but if I didnb't have a history with the player and I was at risk I would give him credit for this one. But I would watch him carefully.
ReplyDelete