Why?
Well, since this is a poker blog, and since I took a vow of
political chastity until 2013 (I pissed off more than a few people on Facebook,
I guess), allow me to answer that question and improve your poker playing at
the same time.
First, people in general are lousy at calculating what we
refer to as “risk.” Americans are
actually worse at it than others. We
underestimate our risk at being hit by lightning and overestimate being caught
in a terrorist attack. We underestimate
our risk of losing our home to a fire or flood, and overestimate our chances of
winning the lottery. And so on.
Second, we tend to mis-calculate the odds when we really,
really, really WANT something to happen.
We add “bonus points” to the odds to compensate for what we’d like to
see occur, and disregard obvious signs that perhaps what we want to happen ain’t
gonna happen. Seriously - I just came
across an article that discusses this phenomenon, although I must admit I’ve
seen it enough on the poker felt to know it’s true.
So maybe that’s what happened last Tuesday. Even though most polls showed an Obama
victory, the Romney fans found “their own math” and “just knew” that Mitt would
pull it out once all the votes were counted.
And when you play poker, are you the same? Take this example: Six-handed, it’s folded to you on the button,
and you raise with a pair of red jacks.
The small blind folds, and the nitty big blind re-raises. You call, and the flop comes Ace-King-Seven
rainbow. He checks, you bet about
two-thirds the pot, and he raises. Do
you call?
Well, he either has air, or you are waaaayyyy behind. And if he really is a nit, how often does he
have air? For most players this is an
easy fold, but some folks get committed to their pocket face cards no matter
what the data says. If he has an ace or
a king, you’re about a 9-1 dog. In my
book, that’s a landslide.
So pay attention to the cards and the data they
provide. Pay attention to the playing habits
of your opponents. If they never bluff
and they like to chase flushes and there are three cards of one suit on the
board and they go all-in…yeah, they probably have it. You rarely have a complete situation like
this, however. It’s never quite this
clear. Poker is always a game of
incomplete information, but often enough there IS plenty of information to make
an educated decision, remembering that even being a 9-1 favorite doesn’t mean
you ALWAYS win.
Last election reference:
One pollster was accused of saying Romney had no chance of winning. He replied, “I said it’s doubtful, not
impossible.” May the data always be in
your favor, and for cryin’ out loud, pay attention to it when it’s not!
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