Of course, I am referring to the Fairleigh Dickinson University
PublicMind poll that was
conducted recently and has
been
in the news due to its comparison of dope vs. poker. You’ve no doubt heard about it because the “major
finding” was that respondents were almost twice as likely (50% to 27%) to favor
legalization of marijuana (by the states) as they are to favor legalization of
online gambling (again, by the states).
This was a national poll of over 1000 respondents in late April of this
year, a little after panels in a few states discussed the online gaming issue
but before the currently national blowback of Adelson’s attempts to buy legislation
on the national level.
As
Steve
Ruddock reported, the 27% in favor is fairly static since 2010 (previous
polls). Worse, the number of respondents
who oppose online gaming is 63%, more than twice those in favor, and knowledge of
the issue was also bleak, especially when compared to knowledge of the pot
issue.
I agree with much of Steve’s analysis. Asking about online gambling is different
than asking about online poker, and I also like the idea that the asking of “favor/oppose”
be extended to a more-standard research template of:
- Strongly oppose
- Oppose somewhat
- Favor somewhat
- Strongly favor
However, I am a bit more optimistic about the results than
many, partly because I see patterns. Look
at the two crosstabs for the legalization questions with age:
Do you favor
or oppose allowing casinos to run online gambling for people in their states?
|
18-29
|
30-44
|
45-59
|
60+
|
Favor
|
38%
|
37%
|
20%
|
15%
|
Oppose
|
49%
|
50%
|
71%
|
77%
|
Do you favor
or oppose legalizing of small quantities of marijuana for recreational use?
|
18-29
|
30-44
|
45-59
|
60+
|
Favor
|
65%
|
56%
|
48%
|
36%
|
Oppose
|
30%
|
37%
|
47%
|
59%
|
In both cases, it’s us old-fogeys who are most likely to be
opposed to gambling and pot. It’s the
youngsters who are more likely to be in favor.
Where have we seen this pattern before?
Gay marriage.
You may not be old enough to remember, but…these same
patterns emerged years ago when discussing the idea of legalizing marriage for
everyone. Years ago, the old folks
considered marriage between a man and a woman and…that’s it. Youngsters had other ideas. Of course, as time goes by, youngsters get
older and old folks cease to exist, and the overall percentages change, tilt,
until finally…and here we are. More
states recognize gay marriage, and except for the occasional bump in the road
(sorry, Michael Sam), society is seeing marriage in a new light. One we saw coming years ago.
Legalizing recreational marijuana has a longer history, like
gay marriage, but it too is changing, slowly (and it’s us old folks who…pufffffffff…have
the history). Online gaming is a mere babe
in the woods, so (unfortunately), it may take more time. I might cease to exist by the time it becomes
a reality again.
Then again, online poker has a slightly different history in
that it WAS “legal” before, so maybe it won’t take as long as I fear. Oh, wait, so was
cannabis.
Another aspect of this survey I hold out hope for is the
awareness factor. As Ruddock commented,
it was dismal…
There has been
movement by some states to make it legal for casinos to provide on-line, or
internet, gambling for its residents. Have much have you heard or read about
this…?
A lot
|
15%
|
Some
|
19%
|
Just a little
|
21%
|
Nothing at all
|
44%
|
In this question, it was the younger demos that were
slightly less likely to have heard/read about the issue (there was virtually NO
difference in the age demos on the awareness of the marijuana issue). The one thing I’d like to see that wasn’t
included in the study’s results was a crosstab of awareness with being in favor
or opposing the issue of online gambling.
My guess is that more awareness of the issue is a negative (for us) as
it means individuals are more likely to be against the idea. Of course, if the ONLY thing they’ve heard
about it is the shrieking of Adelson’s minions, then that makes some
sense. I’ve asked the folks at FDU if
they’d run this very crosstab for me (if they haven’t already done it
internally), and if I get a response, I’ll post an update.
For now, it’s obvious we still have our work cut out for us. If we fight, we can win.
If not, we can just go get high.
* I refer to the Fairleigh Dickenson PublicMind poll as the Fair-Dick
Poll because (a) I am mindful about Twitter’s 140 character restrictions, and
(b) because they refer to it as a “vice” poll which is kinda slanted, really,
so I’m calling them Fair-Dick in retaliation.