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As you may know, Sheldon Adelson finally backed a winner in
Donald Trump, putting somewhere near $25 million (or more) into his
campaign. And as you also might know,
rich donors usually expect something for their largess. Don’t take my word for it – the President-elect
said so himself earlier this year about his own contributions:
“When you give, they
do whatever the hell you want them to do.”
Face it; $25 million should get you something more than just
double bonus miles.
So one can expect that Adelson will want something in return
– the questions are what and how much? The “what” is easy – his top three issues (in
my opinion) would be
- Israel – keeping US support strong
- Marijuana – making it illegal (he’s been a strong opponent of medical marijuana regulation in Florida)
- Online Gambling – ditto.
The “how much” pertains to whether he can get all three of
his wishes granted. The first one is a
slam-dunk, as I can’t see the next Administration doing any less for Israel
that is being done now. So that’s
one.
The other two are the focus of my thought-experiment
here. There are plenty of similarities –
both marijuana and online gambling are considered “vices” that are usually
handled in by the states. There are also
legal issues unique to each that have surprising parallels.
Since Tuesday, there have been countless conversations asking
pretty much the same thing: “what does
the election of Donald Trump mean to my industry?” Online gambling has been one of them, with
two recent op-eds in OnlinePokerReport
and PokerNewsDaily
painting a dire picture. The marijuana
industry has also taken note that despite the recent progress at the ballot box,
it too may face radical changes. See here,
here,
here
and here.
California, Nevada and Massachusetts approved measures
legalizing the recreational use of marijuana, while Florida, Arkansas and North
Dakota voted to allow pot for medical purposes.
Currently there are eight states where recreational pot is legal, and 29
states and DC where some form of medical marijuana is allowed.
Trump has been on record that he thinks marijuana should be
a state issue. He’s also a former casino
owner, so he obviously thinks gambling is OK, but his views of online gambling are
less known. And as Adelson proves, one
can be pro-gambling yet anti-online-gambling.
In both gambling and dope, it’s not so much Trump position,
as those who he would have in his cabinet, as advisors, and those currently in
the GOP-controlled Congress. Think Chris
Christie and Rudy Giuliani. And Sheldon.
Marijuana is still considered a Schedule 1 drug, and federally,
it’s illegal. Because it is, banking
issues are the norm for marijuana distributors – it’s a “cash only” business,
and they cannot take certain tax breaks available to regular businesses.
Yet marijuana has been a cash cow for states where it’s
legal, shoring up revenue streams due to the inability to raise taxes on constituents. Recent research shows that legalizing
marijuana has actually decreased
crime (kinda like “consumer protection,” eh?).
Does that last paragraph sound familiar to online gaming
proponents? Darn right it does.
Now the good news (for the marijuana industry) is that many
in the industry think their position is pretty good to OK (few say “safe”). With recent wins at the ballot box, nearly 1
in every 5 Americans lives in a state where some form of legalized
marijuana. Online gaming wishes it had
those numbers. So the only question I
have is whether Sheldon gets one or two more wishes from the magic lantern. If he’s greedy, he’ll try to get everything
he can.
Crap…I think we know how that’s gonna end up.
Our only hope is our continued vigilance, and perhaps the
hope that recreational and medical marijuana can continue to exist as states’
rights issues (and can continue to exist).
In that case, online gaming has a chance, too. Otherwise, we’re in for a really bad beat.
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